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Thursday, 4 August 2011

Championship predictions- 2011/12 season


For competition, the Championship is arguably the best in the world. There's usually one side- 9 times out of 10 the one that's just dropped down from the Premier League- that is looking to break the points record at the top, but the other 23 places are up for grabs. As Blackpool and last years latest success story, Norwich, will testify, the other automatic spot is down to who wants it the most. As for the play-offs, the likes of Cardiff, Leicester and Nottingham Forest will all fancy their chances of a top-six finish, but there always seems to be room for at least two dark horses. At a first glance, the relegation battle looks a little more straight forward than it has in recent years with Doncaster, Peterborough and Watford all focused on just beating the drop. However, there's been a recent trend in sleeping giants starting slow and not having the bite to save themselves (hi, Sheffield United). Here's how I see it at the end of the season:  

1. West Ham United 
2. Leicester City
3. Birmingham City
4. Ipswich Town
5. Nottingham Forest (P)
6. Cardiff City
7. Blackpool
8. Leeds United
9. Middlesbrough 
10. Southampton 
11. Burnley 
12. Reading 
13. Portsmouth  
14. Hull City
15. Bristol City
16. Brighton & Hove Albion 
17. Derby County
18. Millwall
19. Coventry City
20. Crystal Palace
21. Barnsley
22. Watford (R)
23. Doncaster Rovers (R)
24. Peterborough (R) 


Champions- West Ham United

West Ham- a shoe-in even without Parker
Although no one can predict who will be filling the play-off places, the battle for top spot looks to be between a handful of ex-Premier League sides, with the possible inclusion of outsiders, Cardiff. But for me, there is only one team that could potentially walk it. Even with their history (albeit mainly in violence *ducks*), the Hammers have no divine right to coast to the title, but if any side is to do it, it'll be them. The facts are there: 'Big' Sam Allardyce is a Premier League manager and his squad is largely made up of proven Premier League players like Matt Taylor, Kevin Nolan, Robert Green and Mark Noble, with youngsters Freddie Sears and Jack Collison set to challenge for places. Although last seasons leaky defence has possibly been further weakened with the departure of Matt Upson, and with a cloud of uncertainty over the futures of Carlton Cole, Scott Parker and Frederic Piquionne, they are expected to lose a few more key players. But the majority of the squad looks set to stay, and within that they easily have the quality to make a swift return to the top flight.      

Promoted Leicester and Nottingham Forest

Forest- desperate for promotion
Starting with the Foxes, anything below 1st place will be seen as poor preparation for what looks like an inevitable return to the Premier League for the 2012-13 season. Money has been spent, not on transfer fees, but on wages for much desired free agents to bulk-up a squad that weren't far off top-six finish last season. Its easy to forget about the likes of Andy King and Richie Wellens after Sven Goran-Eriksson's transfer binge which saw a string of proven Championship commodities sign up for the revolution at the newly named King Power Stadium. Matt Mills, Neil Danns and David Nugent will be expected to justify their billings, and with even more players rumoured to be on their way, Leicester should secure second place early on. Although not the bookmakers favorites, Steve McClaren's Nottingham Forest are my pick to get the monkey of their backs with promotion via the play-offs. Forest always seem to make the top-six, but seem to lack the cutting edge to beat their competition near the top- something former boss Billy Davies blamed on the lack of funds put into the club. This time round however, McClaren has stated that he's happy with his squad, only adding experience in the form of burly (I was careful) winger Andy Reid, Jonathan Greening and the evergreen George Boateng since his arrival. Knowing they've been down all of the roads before, I fancy Forest to really want it this time round. Also, after keeping the bulk of their squads, Blackpool, Burnley and Birmingham I believe will also be in contention.      

Relegated Doncaster Rovers, Watford, Peterborough United

Failing so far to add any real quality to their squads since spending virtually the whole of last season looking behind them, Doncaster and Watford along with newcomers Peterborough are my picks fill the bottom three. Both Donny and The Hornets are no strangers to a relegation scrap in this league, with The Posh also looking like cannon fodder for teams looking to dominate at home.'Boro' go into the season with a similar squad to the one that finished bottom of the second-tier in 2010, only with around minus 20 goals which left with Craig Mackail-Smith. New signing Nicky Ajose had a great 2010-11 campaign at Bury on-loan from Manchester United, but at 19-years-old, filling the boots of Brighton's new hitman seems a little too much to ask. Watford meanwhile, after Malky Mackay's switch to Cardiff, have Sean Dyche in charge; Mackay's former assistant who is entering into his first spell in management. It been no secret that funds are low at Vicarage Road, and as a result, expectations aren't exactly sky-high. Finally, Donny are down as the bookies favorites for the drop due to looking every bit like a League One side towards the end of last season. A promotion and two mid-table finishes has seen manager Sean O'Driscoll praised by some, but after their close-shave in the previous campaign, few are backing him to do it again. Fellow new arrivals Southampton and Brighton have eyes on the top-half and above, so expect some seasoned Championship sides to be battling it out to stay in the division.     

Top Scorer Rickie Lambert (Southampton)

Lambert- should get 20+
A tough one to call as ever, and one that could change should Sven fancy one last dip into the owners' bottomless pockets, but I'm going for an outsider in Rickie Lambert. The heavyweight scouser has had to wait two seasons to finally get out of League One with the Saints, but my is he primed for it. A grand total of 57 goals in just over 100 appearances for the sleeping giants has more than justified worth in his £1m move in 2009, but key to his success is his teammates. Boasting both ambition and wealth, virtually no clubs have even declared an interest in the likes of Adam Lallana and Dean Hammond, knowing that bids would be rejected. Chances of a move away from St.Mary's for wonderkid Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are looking increasingly slim as the weeks go on, which is great news for Lambert who will benefit from the youngsters crossing. I'm also backing Cardiff's Kenny Miller and Ipswich's Michael Chopra to do well for their new clubs.       

Prospect Jordon Mutch (Birmingham City)

The 19-year-old has featured little for the 'Blues since his arrival in 2008, but with Barry Ferguson, Craig Gardener, Sebastian Larsson and Lee Bowyer all exiting St.Andrews, Mutch has the chance to shine. The Irishman was a regular during a loan spell at Watford last season that was cut-short in January; causing then boss Malky Mackay pleading with City to let him stay. Upon his return, an impressive performance against Millwall in the FA Cup saw him sign a new three-year-deal with the club days later, and 2011-12 is set to see him do the business against Championship sides on a more regular basis. New manager Chris Hughton is said to be a huge fan, using pre-season games to establish Mutch's best position in a midfield that he could potentially control. Keep an eye out also for Brighton's pacey winger Kazenga LuaLua- on-loan from Newcastle- and Blackpool's Matt Phillips.     

League One predictions will be posted tomorrow, so don't forget to follow the blog!

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